TO: Political Office
FROM: Angie Choi, Cassidy Bittenbender, Jared Holloway, Bianca Sanchez, and Bliss Dillon
DATE: Oct. 19, 2021
RE: Sea-level rise in Virginia
Rising sea levels have taken a dramatic toll on coastal U.S states. Virginia is especially prone to the problems caused by sea-level rise with Hampton Roads the second largest population at risk from sea-level rise in the country. Virginia as a whole has experienced the highest rate of change in sea levels on the East Coast. Failure to promote investment in mitigation or remedial solutions will cost billions of dollars in property damage and entail loss of economic opportunity for businesses and industry. Flooding and inundation threaten transportation infrastructure, tourism, agriculture, fishing, and real estate. More than 70% of Virginia’s population, some Department of Defense facilities, and the largest naval facility in the world reside in unprotected, at-risk coastal regions. However, Virginia is also at the forefront of policy regarding this issue. Governor Northam initiated a framework to assist localities in creating strategies to combat sea level rise. The Virginia Coastal Resilience Master Planning Framework aligns federal, state, and local efforts. It is recommended that with your influence on the Budget and Armed Services committees that you promote federal funding for sea level adaptation projects as a matter of state and national interest.
Sea-level rise in Virginia
- The Department of Defense is heavily invested in Virginia and is a primary driver in the economy in the coastal region. It accounts for 8.9% of Virginia’s GDP, which is the highest of any state.
- Coastal tourism in Virginia accounts for $5.2 billion dollars annually making coastal regions highly important for the Virginia economy.
- The number of worsened floods due to storm surges and higher tides is expected to triple with continued trends of global warming. This puts 149,000 members of the population, 72,000 homes and 278,000 acres of land at risk. Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Norfolk, and Hampton are among the cities with the largest total exposed populations.
- States have started putting forth committees, programs, and frameworks to assist with adaptation and mitigation tactics. The Virginia Coastal Resilience Master Planning Framework is one such document that focuses on regional-level policies, with the assistance of state programs such as the Coastal Zone Management Program.
- The East Coast of the United States contributes $7.6 trillion in goods and services annually, along with jobs for 54 million people.
Pros:
Climate change is a constant threat to Virginia’s coastline and citizens. The new Virginia coastal planning framework offers the most direct and impactful approach to combating the rising sea-level rise. This is done by utilizing regional scale planning to help individuals and their communities create and implement mitigation strategies. Communities, especially those in coastal areas, are best suited for creating a framework to combat the local impacts of climate change. Directly involving local communities and allowing them the opportunity to create a plan and framework ensures that the outcome will have the maximum amount of impact on mitigating and preventing the effects of rising sea levels. Virginia Beach has already taken the first steps by passing the Sea Level Wise program to protect fragile neighborhoods and industries. Having a comprehensive plan will protect coastal states from the economic damage caused by rising sea levels. Virginia’s economy in coastal regions is largely based on tourism, fishing, and defense. In 2017, the Department of Defense spent more than $46.2 billion on the personnel hired in Virginia in the Hampton Roads area. Preventing the effects of sea-level rise will also serve to protect the natural habitats of Virginia and their rich biodiversity. One of the most vital environments found in the coastal areas of Virginia are wetlands. Wetlands filter nutrients and other substances from coastal waters while buffering inland areas from flooding and storm surges. Wetlands play a vital role with coastal ecosystems by housing a multitude of species. Promoting the Virginia coastal planning framework as a model for other states and supporting federal support for coastal adaptation funding will encourage other states to follow in Virginia’s footsteps when it comes to combating the effects of climate change.
Cons:
As climate change continues to worsen, communities living along coastal areas will be the ones who will suffer from the issue first, due to sea-level rise, tidal flooding, and storm surge. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Swell’s Point tide gauge has determined that Virginia has experienced more than 18 inches of sea-level rise within the past 100 years. But passing policies concerning climate change is always difficult. The cost of adapting to recurrent flooding, storms, and sea level rise is steep. Sea-level rise in Virginia is increasing faster than any other place along the East Coast. However, it is hard for vulnerable communities to find financial assistance to make flooding strategies affordable. Virginia’s Department of Conservation and Recreation suggested using taxes to fund mitigation of flood risk, but politically, this strategy may not be feasible. Wealthier communities who have the resources to prepare themselves for the impacts of climate change will be comparatively well-equipped as opposed to lower income communities, worsening disparities. The intent of the coastal resilience master plan is to reduce the risk of sea-level rise and flooding to people and property. The plan also ensures fair treatment for all communities as well as protecting the coast. Raising awareness on climate change and letting them know about the consequences, however, can be difficult. Recognizing the importance of protecting infrastructure and wildlife is also critical, and without funding or awareness, this plan may be a hard one to implement.
Analysis and Virginia angle:
Rising sea levels are inevitable but we can prepare for what is to come. Based on sea level predictions, people will have one of two choices: they can wait for the floods and storms to destroy their properties and the land, and lose their homes and cities, or they can prepare and invest in sustainable infrastructure and flood barriers, and adapt. The issue continues to worsen as the population grows in coastal regions across the United States. The U.S. Department of Commerce estimates that 47 percent of the U.S. population lives along coastlines, putting a significant portion of the public at risk. At the same time, the United States has seen an increase in both the number and frequency of billion-dollar disaster events, sustaining 254 weather and climate disasters since 1980 with a total cost exceeding $1.7 trillion. 2019 was the fifth consecutive year in which the United States suffered 10 or more weather and climate disasters, at an average of 12.6 events per year, more than twice the 40-year average. Between 2018-2019, Virginia experienced impacts from nine such events with a total cost of approximately $1.6 billion. The timeline for sea-level rise differs on the area, but the NOAA 2017 Relative Sea Level Change Scenarios for Sewell’s Point predict as much as 2.2 feet of sea level rise at Sewell’s Point by 2050 and 6.69 feet by 2100. Data from Virginia’s longest-operating tide gauge at Sewell’s Point in Norfolk suggests that the state has seen more than 18 inches of relative sea level rise in the past 100 years.
In 2019, a report found that four areas important to the Navy were vulnerable from sea-level rise. But there are a lot of other places that need an infrastructure upgrade to protect them as well. Ben McFarlane, a senior planner for the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission, stated that, “Even if the building isn’t flooded but you can’t get there, that’s a problem.”